Earlier today, the Los Angeles Kings made a curious deal, acquiring Ben Bishop and a 2017 5th round pick from the Tampa Bay Lightning for prospect Erik Cernak, Peter Budaj, a 2017 7th round pick, and a 2017 conditional pick.
It's curious because Jonathan Quick has just returned, seemingly solidifying the team's netminding, while its forwards still can't score enough. In short, LA probably needs goals, not goaltending.
Like most, I still haven't fully figured out this trade. We probably won't be able to until after the Trade Deadline. So for now, it seems prudent to try to look at it from as many sides as possible.
Plus: Ben Bishop, at his best, is a top-notch goalie.
Bishop has been a Vezina finalist in two of the last three seasons. He also led the Lightning to the 2015 Stanley Cup Finals.
Quick-Bishop is undoubtedly a high-ceiling tandem. With five back-to-backs to close the year, it's not a bad thing to be able to throw out a world-class goalie every night. Indeed, management's plan seems to be to use Bishop a fair amount:
And as an insurance policy -- if Quick's groin doesn't hold up -- you can't do much better than Bishop.
Bishop also comes to Los Angeles on a roll, having won his last five decisions.
Minus: Goaltending is notoriously difficult to predict.
Budaj could well outperform Bishop the rest of the way. In fact, he's outplayed Bishop up to this point this year.
This isn't one of those anything-can-happen scenarios -- i.e. you trade for Wayne Gretzky in his prime, but who knows, he could get into a car accident tomorrow. It's legitimately hard to say how Bishop will play for the Kings, just like it's impossible to predict
how Quick will come back from serious injury.
My point is, to declare that Bishop will certainly be a huge upgrade over Budaj the rest of the year -- a very small upcoming sample size -- is not a safe statement. The position of goaltending is too volatile to feel good about such an assertion.
Plus: The cost for Bishop was relatively low.
Defenseman Cernak, who was a 2015 2nd round pick, has seen his star fall. While the 19-year-old still owns intimidating size and strength, his overall game hasn't progressed dramatically. This might be his sell-high at this point.
Budaj has been a wonderful surprise, but he's more likely a backup, with the ceiling of an average starter. In the big picture, he's replaceable.
A Tampa Bay fifth-round pick is obviously more valuable than a Los Angeles seventh. The conditional pick can be as high as a second, but that will probably depend on significant team success, in which case, most Kings fans won't sorely miss the pick.
It's really not a lot to trade for a potentially great goalie.
Minus: Curious asset management
On the other hand, a devalued Cernak could've still been a part of a deal for some top-nine forward depth, which is what the Kings really need. Granted, he probably wouldn't help bring back a big name i.e. Gabriel Landeskog or Matt Duchene, but a two-way third-line winger would also be a boon to the Los Angeles line-up.
Granted, Cernak isn't the only tradeable LA prospect. But the cupboard is pretty bare. Assuming Paul LaDue and Adrian Kempe are "untouchable," who's left? Kale Clague? Jonny Brodzinski? Kevin Gravel?
With Quick's return and Budaj's season-saving play, the Kings looked to have other, more pressing needs. We'll see what Dean Lombardi has up his sleeve at the Deadline.
Plus: The Kings kept Bishop away from playoff competitors
There's reason to believe that the Calgary Flames and the St. Louis Blues, both just ahead of LA for a wild card berth, could be interested in a goaltending upgrade. So preventing your competitors from improving, while getting better yourself, is a good thing.
Minus: Who knows how interested these competitors were in Bishop?
Steve Yzerman was actively shopping Bishop, so you have to guess that if Calgary and St. Louis inquired about the impending UFA, they weren't exactly offering a lot, based on what Tampa Bay accepted from Los Angeles. In short, the Flames and Blues probably weren't seriously interested in Bishop. Or perhaps, one or both of those teams were on Bishop's limited, eight-team no-trade list.
Plus: Tampa Bay will retain 20% of Bishop's contract.
Minus: Los Angeles will be eating the rest of Bishop's 5.95 million-dollar contract. That's 4.76 million.
Seems scary, but remember that, as
Jon Rosen pointed out, because "a team’s cap space is pro-rated and increases each day towards the trading deadline, the Kings still have plenty of wiggle room to make an additional move." LA still has 3.3 million to play with, which should be plenty considering how little time is left in the regular season.
However, like Cernak, it's curious asset management -- cap space can be an asset too.
Plus: The Kings are probably a better team today than they were yesterday
Bishop is a
probable upgrade over Budaj in the short term. At the very least, he offers a higher ceiling. If the 6'7" netminder plays up to his ability, this trade is a likely win, even if he walks this off-season.
There's also something to be said about taking the cheaper, easy deal to improve a position of strength (for LA, that's goaltending) -- if you can't reasonably improve your team in other, more pressing need areas like up front (i.e. the cost is prohibitive). If -- and once again, it's a
big if -- Bishop catches fire, that could be more valuable than any available forward.
Even if Bishop plays less than a dozen or so games for the Kings, if he performs well, that could be the difference between making the playoffs or not.
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